It's Friday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Championship Weekend college football best bets.
It's crazy that the season has gotten here, to the final Saturday. Yet here we are with not only conference championships on the line, but playoff bids as well.
On the season the picks are sitting at a cool 45-26 overall, good for a cool 63 percent and the goal is to finish things out with a bang!
Before we get started, a quick reminder - to make sure you're following the College Football Betting Pod - where were' giving out as good of information as anyone in the space. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or our new YouTube page.
Now to the picks:
Mountain West Championship Game: No. 20 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State (UNDER 57.5) - Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
While I wasn't always (and at times, still am not) a proponent of the expanded playoff, I will say this: It's given games like this real meaning. Even just a year ago, the Mountain West title game was just another game, something to put on the side TV for entertainment (and maybe gambling purposes). But now, it's got playoff implications for both teams.
Win and you're in. Boise State has the added bonus of a potential first round bye with the victory.
So yeah, this new playoff format might be cool after all (which of course will inevitably lead to them blowing it up in two years when the new TV contracts come up. But that's another conversation for another day).
In terms of the game, I expect it to be low scoring and for the under to be in play.
First off, these two teams played each other already. It was close. It was back-and-forth. It was one of Ashton Jeanty's "worst" games, where he was held to "only" 128 yards rushing. Shame on him, I know!
But really, that speaks to why the under will be in play here.
These teams are both familiar with each other. It's going to be frigid cold in Boise on Friday night. And while both like to run the ball, these are also two of the Top 25 run defenses in college football as well.
Give me a 28-24 Boise win, and the under hitting as well.
Big 12 Championship Game: No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State (-2.5) - Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Ah yes, the Big 12 title game and the matchup we all had in the preseason! Iowa State vs.... Arizona State which was picked to finish 16th in the Big 12 this year?!
Wait, what?!
That's right, for all the talk about how awesome the Indiana and Colorado stories are this year - and they are awesome - how about we show a little love to Kenny Dillingham? The Sun Devils were picked to finish last in a 16-team league, yet are now playing for a title.
What might be even more impressive how they got here.
Not only are they 10-2. Not only are they riding a four game win streak and have won six of seven. But their only loss since September came without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt.
Iowa State is a great team and great program, but I just don't think people realize quite how good Arizona State is this year.
They win and clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.
SEC Championship Game: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (-2.5) - Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let's get to the big one, and first of all, a moment of silence. There will be no Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson or Verne Lundquist on the call for the first time in a long time.
One last RIP to the SEC on CBS.
And in a sign of the times, how about Texas making the SEC title game in their first year in the league - and being favored?
Better question: How about Texas making the SEC title in their first year in the league - and winning?
I believe it will happen, for two simple reasons.
One, it feels like there is an awful lot of revisionist history on the first game these two teams played. Yes, Georgia was dominant early and was a deserving winner. But they also jumped out to a 23-0 lead, and Texas cut it to 23-15 before the Dawgs scored a touchdown to put the game away late.
It seems like everyone just remembers that as a one-sided blowout and it simply wasn't that way.
Two, the difference between these two teams in my opinion isn't talent necessarily. It's consistency.
To its credit, Texas is basically the same team every week. They probably aren't as good on offense as we expected, certainly in the pass game. But the run game is elite, behind an equally elite o-line and the defense is elite as well. Especially in the secondary.
Then there's Georgia, and quick question: It's early December, but have we gotten the same Georgia team two weeks in a row?! One week the defense is lights out. The next you can move the ball on them. One week Carson Beck looks like he did last year. The next week he needs to be benched. One week the Dawgs run the ball effectively. The next week they don't.
Put another way, they have two losses. And while they also have two great wins (at Texas, Tennessee), they also easily could've lost the Georgia Tech and Kentucky games and Clemson was tied at the half.
I could go on and on, but I'll take the more consistent team in Atlanta.
And I'll take Texas to win its first SEC title.
Big Ten Championship Game: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (-3.5) - Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, CBS
I'll be quick on this one, because I believe Oregon is the best team in college football, maybe has been since about Week 4 of the season and has gotten zero credit for it.
And with it, my question is this: How are the Ducks only a 3.5 point favorite?!
Look, I know Penn State is good. They're 11-1, beat everyone on the schedule they should've, play elite defense, all that jazz.
But this is also the same team that easily could've lost on the road at Minnesota two weeks ago and needed overtime to beat USC. This isn't an 11-1 juggernaut that blew out everyone on their schedule other than Ohio State.
This is a good team, but not an elite one.
Oregon? They're elite. And if the argument is "Well Penn State's defense will keep them in it" just remember, Oregon has played two of the Top 15 defenses in America this year (Ohio State and Michigan) put up 30+ points on each and accumulated nearly 1,000 yards.
I'm not saying this game turns into a blood bath. But it has Oregon 31, Penn State 14 written all over it, as the Ducks cruise to the No. 1 seed in the playoff.
ACC Championship Game: No. 17 Clemson (+2.5) vs. No. 8 SMU - Saturday 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let's go to a game that is arguably the most consequential of the day, the ACC title game.
If Clemson wins, they're in. If they lose, they're out.
If SMU wins, they're (obviously) in. But if they lose... well that's where it gets interesting.
If you missed it, we had a whole conversation on the strengths and weaknesses of a two-loss SMU vs. a three-loss Alabama on today's Aaron Torres Pod.
If you missed it, tune in. I think you'd enjoy it.
But to the bigger picture, while I respect Rhett Lashlee for publicly fighting for his team this week - is it too much?! At what point does talking about the possibility of losing impact your team and game prep?!
It's something I wonder.
What I also wonder if this is just a bad matchup for SMU.
While I actually think the Mustangs are good, and am willing to hear their argument as an at-large candidate as long as this game is competitive, here is the truth: The one thing they don't do well is defend the pass. And the one thing Clemson's offense does exceptionally well is throw the ball with Cade Klubnik and all those young receivers.
Beyond that, how much of our views on Clemson are impacted by LaNorris Sellers just going OFF last week?! The kid is unreal. But Clemson led that game for the first 59 minutes, and if they could've held him to say 125 rushing yards instead of 166, they win that game, are 10-2 and favored in this one.
I could go on and on, but I'll go ahead and take the Tigers to win as a short underdog.
Enjoy Championship Week everyone!
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