It's Tuesday and you know what that means: Thanks to a totally strange schedule, with the holidays falling in the middle of the week... It's time to make some PLAYOFF PICKS, BABY!
That's right, it'll be about 10 days between games, but the playoffs are back and it's time to share our picks.
Admittedly, things weren't great in the opening round (1-3 ATS) but much like the teams on the field, it's just one game and we're just here to get better each week. Thankfully, our season-long resume still proves we're playoff worthy, with the picks sitting at 50-31 ATS on the season.
Ok, bad puns aside, it's time to get to the picks, with one final reminder: Make sure you're following the College Football Betting Pod - where were' giving out as good of information as anyone in the space. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or our new YouTube page.
Now, to the picks.
Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State (-11.5) vs. No. 3 Boise State - Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It's New Year's Rockin' Eve, James Franklin style, baby! That's right, it's time to shove that nerd Ryan Seacrest aside, as Ashton Jeanty, Drew Allar and the boys are taking us until midnight eastern and helping us ring in 2025.
Well, sort of anyway.
Because one, this game should end with plenty of time to ring in the new year with the actual people at your New Year's party. And two, because metaphorically I think this one could be over well before the final whistle.
Look, I could go into a million different stats on why this one could and will be a blowout, but truthfully, I just think this is a bad matchup for Boise State.
Penn State's offense is finally clicking towards the tail-end of the year and going up against a questionable secondary for Boise that ranked 109th nationally. And Jeanty and that elite run game are going up against the best rush defense they'll have seen all season. Yes, they nearly beat Oregon a few months back, but there's a big difference between sneaking up on Oregon in Week 2, and James Franklin having 10 days to game-plan for a player that his team knows was a record-setting Heisman finalist.
Jeanty and the Broncos were a great story this season.
Penn State is the better team.
They win 31-14.
Peach Bowl: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Arizona State (UNDER 51.5) - Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
While I really don't see the scenario where Boise State can keep things close as a big underdog against Penn State, I do believe that Arizona State will be able to against Texas.
That's because while Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham is one of the youngest coaches in college football, his teams play like they're coached by some guy straight out of the 1970's.
They run the football extremely well, don't give up big plays on defense and don't beat themselves.
And that isn't just my opinion, but a fact. The Sun Devils currently rank Top 25 in rush offense, have the second fewest turnovers in college football and rank fourth nationally in fewest plays allowed of 30 or more yards.
Arizona State isn't better than Texas. Or even close. But that my friends is how you keep things close.
Especially against a Texas team, that well, we kind of know who they are.
Yes, Quinn Ewers played better against Clemson a few weeks ago. But one, Clemson's defense really wasn't all that good this year, and two "high-flying offensive juggernaut" isn't really how you'd describe this Texas offense all season. If anything as time has gone on they've gotten more conservative, and relied more heavily on the defense and run game.
So, take two teams that want to run the ball, don't want to beat themselves and keep things low-scoring and what do you get?
A Texas 24-14 win. And an easy under.
Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (+2.5) - Wednesday, 5 p.m. ET, ABC
Ah yes, the Granddaddy of Them All. The Rose Bowl. And a simple question: Are we giving Ohio State too much credit for their win over Tennessee?
Look, it's not that the Buckeyes weren't impressive. They were. It was Ryan Day's best coaching job in Columbus, period. It also just feels weird to me that the narrative on the Buckeyes went from "Ryan Day sucks, fire him, he's got to go!" to "Ohio State is now going to steamroll everyone and win a natty" in the span of 60 minutes.
It seems weird to me. It also doesn't fall in line with Ohio State, or even the reason why we got to the "Ryan Day sucks, fire him, he's got to go!" mindset in the first place. Ohio State always has an immese talent advantage. They just don't always play like it.
As a matter of fact, you could argue that this year the Buckeyes followed up two of their best performances with their worst. Right after playing Oregon down to the wire in a game that could've gone either way, the Buckeyes struggled against Nebraska and easily could've lost. A few weeks later they stomped a Top 5 Indiana team...only to roll over against Michigan a week later.
Now I'm supposed to believe that they're going to play four straight games of dominant football? Sorry, history just doesn't tell us that's going to happen.
Beyond that, while the Tennessee team they beat was good - it was also flawed. Dylan Sampson got hurt early in that one, and way too much was put on the shoulders of Nico Iamaleava and the pass game on the road.
Well, this is a neutral field. Dillon Gabriel isn't Nico. And Oregon's receiving corps is much better than Tennessee's.
I'm not saying this won't be close, but what I am saying is that the Ducks are being wayyyyy overlooked coming into this game.
Give me Oregon 31, Ohio State 28 in a Rose Bowl thriller.
Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame (+1.5) vs. No. 2 Georgia - Wednesday, 8:45 ET, ABC
Can't lie, as great as the Rose Bowl should be, I am so damn intrigued by this Sugar Bowl to close things out. Notre Dame vs. the SEC champs. The Irish having not won a meaningful, late season bowl game in forever against the hobbled dawgs.
Who do we like here?
In my opinion it should be the Irish.
While Georgia certainly is the more battle-tested of the two, can we also be honest about them: They have been kind of inconsistent all season as well. A dominant win over Clemson, followed a few weeks later by a near loss to Kentucky. A no-show in the first half against Alabama and huge rally in the second half. Loss to Ole Miss, followed by a dominant win over Tennessee. A near-loss to Georgia Tech, followed by a second win over Texas.
Yes, part of that is due to the insane schedule. But it's also partly due to inconsistency all season as well.
One thing you can't say about Notre Dame is that they've been inconsistent. As a matter of fact, they've basically been the same team against everyone since Northern Illinois. They run the crap out of the ball, play elite defense (especially in the secondary) and pound you into submission.
While I certainly don't think Notre Dame will run over Georgia, I do think they have the blueprint to beat them. Especially with Georgia playing a QB making his first career start, against a secondary which was Top 5 in the country in pass defense and interceptions forced.
Final score Notre Dame 24, Georgia 21. A Sugar Bowl classic. And a Notre Dame win.
Happy New Year and enjoy the games everyone!
Last Week's picks: 1-3
Overall this season: 50-31