It's Wednesday, and you know what that means - for the first time ever, it's time to make some 12-team College Football picks, baby!!!
That's right, after years - literal years - of talking about this puppy, it's finally here.
Sure, it might feel a little bit different than we thought (SMU and Indiana in, Alabama and LSU out), but let's be real: This thing is going to be so cool.
Games in South Bend, Happy Valley, Austin and Columbus. Meaningful games taking us into Christmas Week.
To quote Jim Harbaugh.... WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US?!?!?! NOOOOOOBODY!!
So with that said, let's get to the picks!
Before we do, a quick reminder: Make sure you're following the College Football Betting Pod - where were' giving out as good of information as anyone in the space. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or our new YouTube page.
Now, let's get to our playoff picks, BABY!!!!!!
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (UNDER 51.5): Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
Let's start with the playoff opener, and let's be real: When we thought this team 12-team playoff with games on campus, this was what came to mind, right?!
South Bend. At night. In December. Snow flurries.
Facing in-state rival Indiana!
Ok, so maybe that last part isn't totally fair (especially since I'm not sold either Indiana or Notre Dame considers themselves rivals in football). But at the same time this is cool, and I do think we're going to get a fun, low-scoring, winter-football type Friday in South Bend.
From the Notre Dame side of things, that defense has been elite all season and even though they struggled against USC (over 550 yards allowed), I'm just not sold Indiana will be able to move the football effectively. One, there's the weather. But two, there's the fact that in the two games that Indiana faced elite defenses, the offense essentially did nothing.
We all remember the Ohio State debacle, where they basically couldn't move the football after the first, scripted series of the game. But let's not forget that a game before against Michigan they didn't score a single touchdown after the midway point of the second quarter.
So, I'm just not sold Indiana will be able to move the football - but are we sure Notre Dame will either?
The Hoosiers have the No. 1 run defense in America, and while everyone remembers the Ohio State game as a "blow out" the truth is that the Buckeyes didn't break the 300-yard mark of total offense until the final drive of the game. And if you take out a big run from TreyVeon Henderson, they had just 78 yards on 28 carries.
Notre Dame wins, but it will feel like football in the Midwest, with a low-scoring 24-7 type victory and an easy under to start the playoff.
No. 11 SMU (+8.5) at No. 6 Penn State: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, TNT
Just like South Bend the night before, State College will be frigid for Penn State's playoff opener on Saturday afternoon. Like South Bend, there are snow flurries in the forecast for Friday night, meaning the field could be slick as well.
Truthfully, I'm tempted to take the under - and as I said earlier this week, I think there's actually an argument that the under is the right play in every single game.
But for the sake of mixing it up, I'll take the Mustangs plus the points in this one.
First off, if you actually watched the SMU-Clemson game, a couple things stand out to me.
One, if you take out your bias against SMU (assuming you have any) the truth is the Mustangs were the better team for most of the game. Remember, Clemson's opening score was set up by an SMU turnover (SMU was one of the least turnover prone teams in college football coming into that one) and by the end of the game they outgained Clemson by a sizeable margin.
Make no mistake, SMU was able to move the football on Clemson. And I believe they will here.
Beyond that, remember what we discussed in our conference title game previews two weeks ago? It's that SMU has a major hole on defense (the inability to stop the pass) and a great ability to stop the run? Remember, this is a team that had the No. 4 run defense in college football, but just the 90th ranked pass defense in the country.
Well with that said, let me ask you a simple question: You've seen James Franklin in big games. Is it in his DNA to let his quarterback cook, and have him take a bunch of downfield shots? Especially in bad weather? Especially without any elite wide receiver play?
Or will he try to play a smash-mouth, run the ball right at the heart of the defense type style?
I think we both know the answer to that. And it plays right into SMU's hands.
In the end, I do still think Penn State wins.
But this game feels much more like a 24-20 Nittany Lions victory than a 34-7 blowout.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (UNDER 51.5): Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, TNT
Let's keep it rolling, and I can't lie, if you're not fired up for Clemson at Texas you need to check your pulse.
Mainly because if Clemson wins this game, do you know how insufferable Dabo Swinney is going to be?!
We'll see if it happens, but in the meantime I've got to be real: This game feels like it has "low scoring" written all over it.
From the Texas side of things, I'll just say it so you don't have to: This offense has kind of stunk the last several weeks. With two weeks off maybe Steve Sarkisian has had the chance to work some Arch Manning packages into the mix, but in the form that we just saw against Georgia two weeks ago, I'm not sold they can throw the ball against pretty much anybody.
Can they run the ball? Sure. But that doesn't scream "a whole bunch of points being scored."
Then from the Clemson side of things, this offense has become fun and explosive with Cade Klubnik finally rolling in this Garrett Riley system.
Except here's the thing: While Texas' offense is overrated, their pass defense is absurdly elite. On the season the Longhorns have the No. 1 pass defense in America and have nearly five times as many interceptions (19) as touchdowns allowed (four).
I just don't see how this Clemson passing game gets going, and if the passing game can't get going, the run game won't be able to either. And I think Steve Sarkisian largely relies on his offensive line and run game to eek out something like a 27-14 type win.
No. 9 Tennessee (+7.5) at No. 8 Ohio State: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Finally, let's get to the big one.
Tennessee at Ohio State.
Two mega brands. Two elite fan-bases. This is what we imagined when the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams.
Games like this.
With it, I just have one question: Don't the 7.5 points feel like a lot?!
First off, times are just weird in Columbus right now. Morale is low and Ryan Day did himself zero favors by basically trying to downplay the Michigan loss from a few weeks ago. Not sure the "the playoff is all that matters" line is the one fans wanted to hear after a fourth straight loss to your biggest rival.
Beyond that, I also just don't love this matchup for Ohio State. The Buckeyes clear weakness is their offensive line, and in defense of Ryan Day, there's nothing any coach can do about losing your starting left tackle and your starting center for the entire season. Especially in the NIL/portal world where depth simply isn't what it once was.
So yes, Ohio State's offensive line is still beat up and is going up against an elite defensive line in Tennessee. Yes, Ohio State has faced other good fronts (Penn State, Oregon, Michigan). But that doesn't make it any easier when James Pearce and the boys are breathing down Will Howard's throat.
And really, that's the part that's interesting to me: For years when we envisioned the 12-team playoff, it was for the moment when an SEC team would have to travel North and face the elements in Big Ten country.
The issue is that one, Tennessee is built like a cold weather team (run game and defense) and while I'm not great at geography, Knoxville is one of the more northern cities in SEC country. This isn't like LSU or Florida going to Columbus.
In the end, I think these are two pretty evenly matched teams and there is clearly significantly more pressure on one school more than the other.
While I think Tennessee could absolutely win outright, I'll just go ahead and take the Vols plus the points.
Enjoy the playoffs everyone!!
Last Week's picks: 4-1
Overall this season: 49-28
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