It's Monday, and you know what that means - it's time to make our National Championship Game pick!
That's right, to quote the old "Titanic" meme it feels like it's been 84 years since we've last seen college football. But now, 10 days after the last semifinal and over a month after this playoff began, we're going to crown a national champion.
This playoff has gone on a long time, but dammit was it all worth it to get to tonight.
Before we get started, a quick reminder: In addition to reading these picks religiously (which I know you already do) please make sure that you're subscribed to our college football betting-specific show, "College Football Betting with Aaron Torres."
Truth of the matter is, we gave out more free, great advice than anyone in the business going 54-33 overall, good for 62 percent on the year. That includes a 2-0 mark in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
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Now, let's get to our official title game pick:
No. 8 Ohio State (-8.5) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame: Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Well folks, we're here. What started with a hope and a dream in August has brought us to Monday night.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame. For all the marbles. And by the way, if you had this one as your natty title pick in the summer go ahead and give yourself on the back (RIP to my "Georgia over Oregon" selection, by the way).
So now that we're here, we should get a good game between two teams that are clearly playing their best football. I've got to admit, as someone who wasn't an advocate for expanding this playoff, it is sort of refreshing to know that these two teams have earned their way here. Sure, we may have argued over whether Alabama or SMU and the final spot or two in the field, but once we got this playoff Ohio State and Notre Dame have been the two best teams and have earned their right to be here.
In terms of this game, well to me it's an intriguing matchup between two interesting offenses against defenses that quite literally are built to slow the other down.
On the one hand, you have Ohio State's elite passing attack, going against the team that finished No. 1 in opponent completion percentage and No. 2 in the country in interceptions in Notre Dame. On the other, Notre Dame wants to run the ball, which sounds great on paper. Until you go up against an Ohio State run defense which has stopped pretty much everyone all year, and made Texas, Oregon and Tennessee all look pedestrian in these playoffs.
So, to me, we could spend hundreds of words breaking down how each team attacks the other, but the big question to me is simple: Who actually has success moving the ball against the other elite defense.
While I think both could struggle, I do believe there is a huge advantage with Ohio State's offense against Notre Dame's defense compared to Notre Dame's offense vs. Ohio State's defense.
Seriously, let's be honest here. Because as good as Notre Dame's story has been we also have to be realistic about what we've seen in this playoff from the Irish. Yes, they dominated Indiana. I'll absolutely give you that. But then there was the Georgia game, where the defense and special teams basically won them the game. And the Penn State game, where Notre Dame deserved to win - but where Penn State also played the Irish tougher than we remember and made a couple of bone-headed mistakes late.
Let's look at that game, because if we're being honest here's pretty much what happened: Penn State pretty much ran the ball at will on Notre Dame in the first half (207 total yards on the game) and then for some reason went away from it after halftime. Beyond that, there was the somewhat weird decision to "let Drew Allar cook" in the final minute, when he had spent most of the game overthrowing open receivers and in general just not playing very well at all. I also didn't love putting the ball in his hands late when he had been terrible, and when Penn State's receivers literally hadn't logged a single catch the entire game.
Even if we want to give Notre Dame's secondary credit for that last part, we also have to admit it's a GIANT step up of facing Ohio State's receiving corps after Penn State's.
The other variable I think we have to consider is injuries.
That's right, remember when we spent all off-season discussing this playoff? And the No. 1 topic was "who could actually survive a 16 or 17-game season" and avoid the costly injuries?
Doesn't it seem like Ohio State has the big advantage there coming into this game?!
The Irish were already without their best cornerback this postseason. Then lost their best defensive lineman against Indiana. Then, a starting offensive tackle against Penn State. Riley Leonard was in and out of concussion protocol last game. And Jeremiyah Love - who says he healthy - was also wearing a bulky knee brace the last time we saw him.
There's certainly a path to win for Notre Dame (likely forcing Will Howard into multiple turnovers that directly turn into points) but realistically to me it's just hard to pick against Ohio State here.
That's right, me, Ryan Day's biggest critic is ready to crown him a national champion.
Final score Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 10. The Buckeyes are your national champion.
Last Week's picks: 2-0
Overall this season: 54-33
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