By the time the NBA Finals ends, both the intensely loyal and fickle NBA fans will become painfully familiar with two themes.
They will soon learn that the Denver Nuggets feel they don’t receive enough respect. They will soon learn that the Miami Heat embodies “Heat Culture.”
Those fans should enjoy some good basketball, too. The Nuggets-Heat series might not have the same national appeal as the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics suiting up to rekindle the league’s greatest rivalry. But there are plenty of reasons to expect some good competition, beginning with Game 1 on Thursday.
Here's our full Game 1 preview with odds provided by our presenting sponsor – Betfred Sportsbook.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets (Thursday, 8:30 pm ET, ABC).
Spread: Denver (-9)
Over/under: 219
On paper, the Nuggets have a vastly superior team.
They have a two-time regular-season MVP that still has a case as the NBA’s best center (Nikola Jokic). They have a young dynamic point guard that arguably would have become an All-Star already if not for an ACL injury in his left knee that sidelined him for the final month of 2020-21 and all of 2021-22 (Jamal Murray). They have another rising young player that has finally overcome early career learning curves and injuries (Michael Porter Jr.). The Nuggets have depth both in the frontcourt (Aaron Gordon) and along the wings (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown). They don’t have any fundamental weaknesses. No wonder the Nuggets landed the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed (53-29) without much issue.
Yet, the Heat have exposed the difference between what a team should look like on paper and on the court. As the second eighth seed in league history to advance to the NBA Finals, Miami clearly has played better than its regular-season record suggested (44-38). The Heat outperformed opponents that failed to play up to their potential in the first round (No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks), second round (No. 5 New York Knicks) and Eastern Conference Finals (No. 2 Boston Celtics). Miami boasts an unmatched competitor (Jimmy Butler), a center that can excel at all five positions (Bam Adebayo), two former All-Stars that have accepted reduced roles (Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love) and three undrafted role players that can make timely shots (Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson).
Nonetheless, the Nuggets have more talent and better health. The Nuggets have not had any player miss any post-season games, Miami guard Tyler Herro will miss Game 1 after staying sidelined for the past 17 post-season games with a fractured right hand. Butler (right ankle) and Vincent (left ankle) will play, but have had to manage with recent ailments.
It also helps that Denver had plenty of time to rest after last playing in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers on May 22. Meanwhile, the Heat survived Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in Boston on Monday, leaving them with only two days to travel, rest and prepare for the next challenge ahead.
Final score prediction: Nuggets 117, Heat 107
Betting pick: Denver (-9)
Mark Medina is a veteran NBA reporter who will be contributing to Aaron Torres Online and Aaron Torres Media throughout the NBA playoffs - follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.
To get full odds on the entire NBA Playoffs visit Betfred Sportsbook
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