It's Thursday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Rivalry Week college football picks!
The picks got back on track last week with a winning week, improving our overall record to 43-24 overall this season, good for a cool 64 percent this season.
So with that said, let's dive into this week's picks.
Before we get started, a quick reminder - to make sure you're following the College Football Betting Pod - where were' giving out as good of information as anyone in the space. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or our new YouTube page.
Now to the picks:
Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State (UNDER 43.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
It's the "Game" and yeah, it's safe to say there isn't quite as much at stake this year.... or is there?! Could you imagine if Ohio State actually lost this game and what the discourse around Ryan Day would be if it happened?!
That probably won't happen, but the under feels like an obvious play to me.
One, Ohio State's defense is absolutely phenomenal this year and is basically Top 10 every category that matters. If you don't believe me just ask Indiana, which basically didn't move the ball after the opening drive last week.
So yeah, I'm not sure if it's possible to hold an opponent to negative points in a game, but if so that's in play when Michigan takes the field against that group.
But at the same time, let me ask a different question: Is there a little bit of revisionist history about how good the Buckeyes offense was last week against Indiana. All I heard all week was "Oh, Ohio State destroyed Indiana." And they did. But they were also gifted 14 points and their offense didn't break 300 yards until the final drive of the game.
With a banged up offensive line going against that Michigan front, I'm just not sure quite how much Ohio State will be able to move the ball.
Buckeyes win, but think it's in the 24-7 type range, giving us an easy under here.
No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson (-2.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Clemson-South Carolina always has juice, but with playoff implications for both teams, it is extra big this year. Both teams are on the fringes of the conversation, but a win here at least gives them an argument. They'd still probably need some chaos around them (assuming Clemson doesn't make, and win the ACC title game) but as the saying goes... "so you're saying there's chance."
Yeah, there is at least a chance.
And that chance will belong to Clemson after this game.
The truth is, South Carolina's defense is awesome, but if you can hold off that pass rush, the secondary can be exposed. It's worth noting that two of South Carolina's losses (LSU, Ole Miss) is to the two best pass offenses they've seen so far this season, and Clemson's is in the same category.
Don't call it an upset since Clemson is favored, but the Tigers get the win, keep their playoff hopes alive, and send sadness through SEC country as the "South Carolina should get into the College Football Playoff with three losses" crowd, quietly goes into the night weeping.
No. 5 Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Two quick thoughts on this game:
How ironic would it be if a Lincoln Riley/USC upset here led to the SEC getting another playoff bid?!
Since I don't think that will happen, how about
Is Notre Dame actually underrated!?
Listen, I know the schedule hasn't been crazy challenging, but some of their defensive stats are mind boggling. They are currently: No. 1 pass defense in college football, have the lowest opponent completion percentage, are No. 1 in forced turnovers, No. 2 in turnover margin and No. 3 in fumbles gained.
I could go on and on, but at the end of the day, I just don't see how a USC offense that frankly isn't that good, moves the ball on this team. Yes, the Trojans made the quarterback change two weeks ago and are 2-0 since. But I'm sure they're actually any better, and feel like the change was more to appease fans after a slow start than because Jayden Maiva actually gives them a better chance to win than Miller Moss did.
I could go on and on, and transparently I'm still not sure Notre Dame is a great team. But they have a great defense and it will be plenty on Saturday at the LA Coliseum.
Auburn (+11.5) at No. 13 Alabama: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
First off, shout out to Auburn's freshman - who clearly didn't get the "no bulletin board material message" earlier in the week and ran their mouths talking about Alabama.
Yeah, Cam Coleman and DeMarcus Riddick, talk your smack.
Two, I'm not sure it matters for two reasons.
One, at this point, there is a very clear way to slow down and stop Alabama's offense - don't let Jalen Milroe run the ball effectively. It isn't surprising that in two of Alabama's three losses (Tennessee and last week against Oklahoma) Milroe was completely shut down in the run game, same against South Carolina in a game that the Tide easily could've lost.
Well, I'm sure that an Auburn group that is a Top 20 run defense in America got that message this week.
Beyond that, let me add this: Alabama has already completely no-showed in two games this season that on paper they had no business losing (Vanderbilt, Oklahoma). You could argue they no-showed in a few others as well that they were able to win.
So my question is: Why are we covinced the Tide will show up ready to play?!
I know it's a rivalry game, I know there's still a backdoor to the playoff, but as the old saying goes "if someone tells you who they are, believe them."
Alabama has showed us that they're a team that's not really invested and doesn't always show up ready to play.
The outright upset wouldn't stun me. But let's take the points, as I expect Auburn to stay in it until the end.
No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M (+5.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It's the big one, Texas at Texas A&M. First matchup between these two schools in 13 years, trip to the SEC title game (and almost certainly the playoff) on the line.
Uh yeah, the people are excited. Some are calling it one of the toughest tickets in regular season sports history.
And with that said, I like A&M here to cover and potentially win.
First off, if we've learned one thing this year it's that it is REALLY hard to win on the road in SEC stadiums at night. Ask Alabama last week, when they lost to Oklahoma. Or Georgia when they lost at Alabama. Or Tennessee when they lost at Georgia. Or Ole Miss when they lost to LSU. Or LSU when they lost at Texas A&M. Or Texas A&M when they lost at South Carolina.
I could go on and on, and it's also worth noting that this is by far the toughest road environment Texas will have played in, in SEC play this season.
Beyond that, it just feels like the Longhorns haven't looked quite right the last few weeks. Both the Arkansas and Kentucky games didn't necessarily feel like games that Texas would lose, but it didn't feel like we got the Longhorns best.
Which leads to the question: When exactly did we see Texas' best?! Oklahoma, in the first week of October?! That's probably the answer, with the point being that it's been a while since we've seen the Longhorns fully clicking.
Forgive me, but I find it hard to believe that they'll suddenly find their groove in front of 100,000 Aggie fans.
I expect this to be a back and forth game, and one that the Aggies just might win. I'll take the points, as we should all expect this one to live up to the hype.
Happy holidays and hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 43-24