We took a break from the column last Sunday. However, we get an extra treat on Thursday as I give you an in-depth game preview for the Packers and Lions on Thursday Night Football. First place in the NFC North is on the line Thursday Night.
I’m really excited for this matchup. The last time Detroit came into Lambeau, they stunned the Packers faithful on the final week of the regular season- eliminating the Packers in what would be Aaron Rodgers final home game. Of course on the other sideline, we get to see Jordan Love’s first start in primetime.
Here is your preview, with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: Thursday, 8:20 ET, Amazon Prime
Spread: Detroit (-2)
Over/Under: 46
The Lions are road favorites in Green Bay for just the second time in two decades. The only other time it happened, the Lions won at Green Bay in 2017 when Bretty Hundley started for an injured Aaron Rodgers.
Dan Campbell does a great job motivating his team when they are the underdog. This is going to be a major test to see how they do as a favorite. The Lions took care of the Falcons at home last week defeating Atlanta 20-6. Detroit’s defense dominated, registering seven sacks. Jared Goff threw for 243 yards with a TD and interception.
Green Bay comes in with major injury issues. The entire left side of their offensive line, David Bakitari and Elgton Jenkins, are out. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are questionable.
For Green Bay:
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Green Bay. Green Bay’s offense dominated Chicago in Week 1 scoring 38 total points. Love threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers applied constant pressure to Justin Fields and had a defensive touchdown from Quay Walker. It’s been an up and down story for Green Bay the last two games. After controlling a majority of the game against Atlanta, the Packers had a late fourth quarter collapse and lost the game on a last second field goal. Green Bay was able to obtain their home opener win streak scoring 18 unanswered points in the 4th quarter. It was the biggest 4th quarter comeback in Packers history.
New quarterback Jordan Love has shown signs of brilliance throwing eight TDs to one pick on the season. We have seen the growing pains as well. The Packers quarterback is completing just 55% of his passes and Green Bay is in the bottom third in the NFL when it comes to offensive success rate. Injuries have a lot to do with it. Jordan Love has been pretty clean in the pocket
only facing pressure on just 18% of his drop backs.
Despite this, Love has not shown the constituency to maintain a flow of the offense. What happens to Love when he eventually sees pressure often? That’s my major concern about him. The Packers are too heavily reliant on explosive plays. You have to give time for your now franchise QB to grow. It’s unrealistic for Packers fans to expect Jordan Love to be extraordinarily productive week in and week out.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Packers have performed well above expectations. They are still giving up yards on the ground- 4.3 yards per rush. But situationally, they have been excellent - getting off the field on third down and holding teams to field goals in the red zone. Their 30.95% third down conversion rate ranks seventh in the NFL and they are holding teams in the red zone to field goals, 44.44% TD conversion rate ranks 11th. Quay Walker looks like a star linebacker and edge rusher Rashan Gary has provided a boost rushing the passer - Rasul Douglas has a top 10 coverage rating on the left corner spot. The Packers defense is turning into a pretty solid group and it will only get better when Jaire Alexander becomes fully healthy.
Detroit Lions:
The Lions are a defensive fourth quarter collapse away from being the fourth 3-0 team in the NFL. The Lions offense was expected to be a top 10 unit in the NFL. The question mark has been what were they going to be like on the defensive side of the ball. So far, the unit has shown up big time. If you take away the 24 points the Seahawks put up in the second half, the Lions would lead the NFL in defensive efficiency. The Lions have played the toughest slate of schedules of offenses, by far. Yet they rank sixth in the NFL in yards per play, they went from the 30th ranked run defense to the 6th best allowing teams to rush for 72 yards per game, and they are getting to the quarterback ranking in the top 11 in pressure rate. Seven of the Lions starters are playing above replacement level. The Lions defense has to play average for this team to be a contender.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Lions have been pretty good. They have taken a step back from being a dominant run team with starting running back David Montgomery battling injuries and first round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs finding a groove. Outside of Jalen Hurts, you can make the case that Jared Goff is the next best quarterback in the NFC. Goff is completing 68 percent of his passes while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. Goff has thrown five touchdowns to two interceptions and Lions have been one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL because of it.
Game Predictions:
Long term, the Packers are going to be a team that will be undervalued almost every week. I think the spot here favors the Lions. The Packers are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and they are coming off an exhilarating come back win in a short week. The Packers are well coached, but it’s hard for a team to come back to earth in a short week. You just have a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The Lions are the class of the division this year. The defense has been great and they should be able to pressure Jordan Love and get them out of rhythm.
On offense, the Lions should enforce their will. I expect Gibbs to have his first big game as a pro. The Lions offensive line should dominate the line of scrimmage and they will be able to protect Goff for most of the night. So I’m going to take the Lions to win at Lambeau for the second consecutive year.
The pick: Lions ML -130 or better
Props:
Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD scorer +120 or better:
The Packers have been pretty good defending the red zone, I don’t expect Lion’s OC Ben Johnson to get cute. I think the Lions will make a statement to impose their will on the ground. I think Gibbs will have multiple opportunities to find the endzone on Thursday.
Luke Musgrave OVER 35.5 receiving yards
If you are a prop watcher, then you know who Luke Musgrave is. Musgrave has hit his over receiving yards the last two weeks. If Love is under pressure, Musgrave will be the safety valve. The Lions have given up over 80 yards per game to tight ends over the first three weeks. I think this is a good matchup for Musgrave to get it going.
Jordan Love OVER 16.5 rushing yards
Expect Love to try to make plays with his feet, whether it be extending it on scrambles or designed runs. The Lions have been good with traditional run stops. We have seen in the first couple of games where they have given up big first downs on quarterback scrambles. In the NFL, quarterbacks don’t lose rushing yards on sacks. We only need Love to get going on a couple series of plays to hit this number.
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