Well everyone, it's Thursday and you know what that means: It's time to make some college football picks, bayyyyyybe!!
First off, a quick apology for missing last week's picks. A combination of travel and some scheduling conflicts had me stretched thin last week. And the bottom line is, if I don't have the time to do the prep work needed that goes into the picks, well I'm not going to put them out. It's not fair to you guys as consumers if I can't give 100 percent, and last week I simply wasn't able to.
Of course with the bad comes the good, and the good is that we're BACK in a big way and trying to stay hot this week. Overall on the season we're sitting at 31-14 overall, good for well over 67 percent. I dare you to find anyone giving out public picks hitting at that number.
Which leads me to this: If you do want to support what we do, as always, please listen to the College Football Betting Podcast on Apple, Spotify or our new YouTube page.
Now, let's get to the picks, which of course are presented by FanDuel!
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State (UNDER 45.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Let's start with the big one, the top five matchup and the simple question I've seen all week: Who is this game bigger for - Ryan Day or James Franklin?
Well, transparently, I think that's the wrong question. From the Penn State perspective, yes, they're 7-0 and want to win this game. But they also have a hobbled Drew Allar coming in. In the 12-team playoff era, I've talked to many Penn State fans that would gladly sacrifice a loss here for a healthy Allar down the stretch. It might not be what college football purists want to hear. But it's the truth.
Instead, the right question is this: Is this the biggest game of Ryan Day's career? And I think the answer is "yes." Lose this, and you're essentially eliminated from the Big Ten title race (both Oregon and Penn State would have a two-game lead on you with three games to go) and you're probably relegated to a road playoff game to open the postseason at best. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Ryan Day losing this game infinitely lowers the possibility that he's back next year as Ohio State.
So, now with that out of the way, the big question everyone wants to know: Who will win?! It's obviously tough to say, and I think the better - and obvious - bet is the UNDER.
From Penn State's side, we referenced Allar's injury earlier. We don't know if he's going to play, but even if he does, he'll obviously be limited almost exclusively to the pocket. Truth be told I wouldn't be surprised if both Allar and his back-up Beau Pribula play, but either way, I expect James Franklin to play things super conservatively and tight to the vest.
Then, there's Ohio State.
Outside of the drama around Ryan Day, the reality is, that the Buckeyes too have their own injury woes, and there's are just as bad as Penn State's starting QB getting beat up. The Buckeyes are deep at just about every position - especially on offense - except for the offensive line. Well, losing starting left tackle Josh Simmons clearly had an impact last week - since, you know, Ohio State couldn't really move the ball. They finished the Nebraska game averaging 2.1 yards per carry. Then the back-up left tackle went down with injury as well.
Point being, when you have a situation where one team doesn't want to get too risky because of a QB injury, and one can't get too risky because of a banged-up o-line, I just don't see very many points being scored here.
Gun to my head, I'll take an Ohio State win, but my official best bet is the UNDER of 45.5.
No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas (+6.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Alright, so I'm going to let you in on a little secret on how I make these picks. What I try to do is take all personal bias out of a game, and put aside if I think the coach is good or not, if I think the team is lousy, if I trust the QB whatever, and just look at what the numbers tell me.
How do these two teams match up? Does one team have a strength going against another team's weakness. And then I go from there.
And so far this season, it's worked out pretty well.
Well, I just want to warn you, this is the one game where I'm actually doing the opposite.
If you just look at pure match-up on match-up, the advantages actually point to an Ole Miss blowout. What does Arkansas do well on offense - they run the ball. Well, Ole Miss has the No. 1 run defense in America. What does Ole Miss do well on offense? Well, they throw the crap out of it, and Arkansas ranks 88th nationally in that category.
Again, the numbers point to a rout in Fayetteville.
Still, while the numbers tell you one thing, I can't help but look at the history of this series.
The history tells you that for whatever reason - and maybe Arkansas fans have the answer - the Hogs always play Ole Miss tough, especially in Fayetteville. Lane Kiffin is actually lost his only two trips to Fayetteville as Ole Miss's head coach, and in their four meetings with Kiffin as the head coach, no game has been decided by more than a touchdown. That includes last year when Arkansas was abjectly terrible, and only lost by a touchdown in Oxford to an 11-2 Rebels team.
Add in that we have an 11 a.m. local kickoff, and Ole Miss could potentially be looking ahead to next week's game against Georgia at home and I think we get a close, back and forth game.
I'll take the Hogs and the points at home.
No. 1 Oregon (-15.5) at Michigan: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
So, if you follow the picks, you know that there's one thing I hate more than anything when it comes to making bets: Taking road favorites.
The same way Dabo Swinney despises the transfer portal and Michigan appears to despise the forward pass, I just don't like taking a team that's favored to win on the road. Let alone a team projected to cover by nearly three scores.
But I just don't see how it's not the right side here.
Look, there's no other way to say this: Michigan's offense is legitimately terrible. Yes, I know they're 5-3 and coming off a win over Michigan State last week, but even in that game, do you know that they got outgained by close to 100 yards? And did you know that right now they currently rank 130th in pass offense in America? Well, I'm not sure this Oregon defense is one you want to be one-dimensional against.
Then there's the Michigan defense, which has actually been very good against the run (Top 15 nationally) but terrible against the pass (86th in the country). I'm not sure that's a good sign going against, quite literally, one of the most efficient passers in college football history in Dillon Gabriel. Especially with All-American corner Will Johnson likely out for this game (at best he'll be less than 100 percent).
I could go on and on, but I just don't see how this game doesn't end in a blowout.
Give me Oregon 34, Michigan 7.
Florida (+16.5) vs. No. 2 Georgia: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC (Jacksonville, Florida)
While I'm never one to question Vegas and its oddsmakers - at least one off-strip casino has been built off my bad bets - there are two teams that Vegas has seemed to struggle to handicap the last few weeks.
One is Colorado, which I believe has covered five straight games, only one in particularly close fashion (I'm actually legitimately sad the Buffs aren't playing this weekend, because we've been making a killing on them).
And the other is Florida. The Gators were home underdogs against UCF and Kentucky and won by nine and 18 respectively. They were also a 14-point road underdog at Tennessee and lost in overtime.
So, for the first time maybe in forever I'm trusting in Billy Napier.
That's because for all the criticism I've personally given Napier the last six-to-eight weeks, since the Gators' first bye a month ago, they've played the best football of the Napier era.
And while it concerns me a little bit backing a true freshman at quarterback in DJ Lagway here, can we have an honest conversation about Georgia for a second?
Yes, they're awesome, but that offense is not clicking at the highest level.
Carson Beck, as we've been on all year, has regressed and completing just 66 percent of his passes. And if we're being honest, most of those stats have been padded against Auburn and Mississippi State, as he completed under 63 percent of his passes against Alabama, Texas and Kentucky. The run game also hasn't really gotten going at any point this year and ranks 95th in the country.
In the end, I don't necessarily see Florida winning this game.
But I'll take the 16.5 points I'm getting on the neutral field.
No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina (UNDER 44.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
This is easily one of the most intriguing games of the college football weekend.
Texas A&M is obviously in poll position to head to the SEC title game, and South Carolina is maybe the most underrated team in the SEC. Don't take my word for it, just ask Mike Elko who called South Carolina "the biggest challenge of the year" this week at his press conference. And I don't think he was being hyperbolic in saying it. South Carolina is really good. Especially along the defensive front.
To me, this game could go either way - I actually lean South Carolina to pull off the "upset" - so instead, I'll just take the under.
And to be me, it's obvious.
First off, both of these teams are elite defensively. We all saw it last week from Texas A&M. And keen SEC observers know that South Carolina is filthy, especially along the defensive front. They have a Top 20 run defense, and their 28 sacks are third in the country.
If you don't believe me on how good that d-line is, ask Alabama, which basically couldn't move the ball against the Gamecocks. Or LSU. Or pretty much anyone who plays them.
More than just both teams being elite defensively, both offenses are built on controlling the ball, taking time off the clock and winning ugly.
Did you know that of the 16 teams in the SEC, these teams rank 16th (South Carolina) and 13th (Texas A&M) respectively in pass attempts this season. And frankly even that number might be skewed a bit since A&M is a much more run heavy team with Marcel Reed at quarterback as opposed to Connor Weigman.
They also rank second and third in rush attempts.
Again, my gut tells me to take South Carolina outright, but I just think A&M might be able to grind out an ugly 17-14 type win.
So instead, I'll take the UNDER which to me is the most likely outcome.
Louisville at No. 10 Clemson (OVER 63.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
While their Palmetto State rivals are grinding out an ugly game down in Columbia, I expect a (relative) shoot out between Louisville and Clemson across the state.
To Clemson's credit, as we all know, they've been a completely different team since the Georgia game. They've not only won seven straight, but have put up 40+ in six of them.
Yet as good as Clemson's offense has been, quietly their defense has been just OK. Specifically, they only rank 67th against the pass, which is a bit of a concern going up against Louisville's Top 10 pass offense.
Also, while the Cardinals aren't quite what they were a year ago - when they won 10 games and played for an ACC title - they are a Top 10 pass offense, and they are battle-tested. Their only three losses have come to teams currently ranked in the Top 25 nationally in Notre Dame, SMU and Miami, and lost all three by a touchdown or less.
Expect fireworks in Clemson, as the Tigers win a fun, high-scoring game to wrap our Week 10 picks.
Last Week: N/A
This season: 31-14
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