It's Friday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Week 11 college football picks, baby!
First of all, Week 11?! Where has the time gone? It feels like only yesterday we were debating just how good LSU was going into the USC game, and if a win against Miami would be enough for Billy Napier to keep his job. Now we're.... debating just how good LSU is going into the Alabama game and debating if it's the right move for Billy Napier to keep his job at Florida.
Ok, I guess even 11 weeks in some stuff hasn't changed.
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And now, to the Week 11 picks. The best bets are sitting at 34-17 on the year, a cool 66 percent as we head into Saturday. And as always, the lines are provided by FanDuel. With a thinner slate, bloated lines and several marquee teams on byes we've also decided to cut our picks from the standard seven or six to just five this week.
Now, to our selections.
No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss (+2.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Saturday's early window is full of bad games and big spreads (Ohio State-Purdue, Miami-Georgia Tech) so let's shoot out to the second window, where things get interesting.
And it starts with Georgia at Ole Miss, an awesome Top 20 matchup with major SEC and playoff ramifications.
And with it, let me ask you a simple question: Are we sure Carson Beck is good?!
Ok, Carson Beck is obviously good so maybe that's not the right way to frame it, but something is clearly off this season. After completing 72 percent of his passes last year with 24 touchdowns and six INT's, he is down to 66 percent completion percentage with 17 TD's and 11 interceptions. And honestly even those numbers are a little skewed, with his two best performances - by far - coming against Auburn and Mississippi State, in games where his numbers got padded.
Bottom line, Beck is playing like a middle to below the pack in the SEC QB right now (seriously, in his third career start, DJ Lagway was significantly better before his injury) and it has hurt Georgia's run game as well, which ranks 97th in the country right now.
That's bad news going up against an Ole Miss defensive front which has been flat out elite. Did you know coming into this game, Ole Miss has the No. 2 ranked run defense, and has given up the third fewest rushing touchdowns in America. Credit to Lane Kiffin: He prioritized difference-makers along the d-line in the portal last winter and it's paying off big-time.
The combination of that d-line, Jaxson Dart and the home crowd will be enough for Ole Miss to pull off the upset, and send the SEC title race into a frenzy.
Michigan at No. 9 Indiana (OVER 49.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
First off, I know what you're thinking: "Torres, you're taking the over in a Michigan game? Have you watched them play? They can't complete a forward pass. They might as well be wearing leather helmets. They make Red Grange's Illinois teams look like Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs."
First off, sick Red Grange reference. Secondly, there's a method to my madness.
First off, it was just a few weeks ago when I took the Indiana under against another elite defense, Nebraska, and umm, the Hoosiers hit the over all by themselves. So, one, I'm never going to doubt the legend that is Coach Cig. All he does is win. Google him. Not to mention that Kurtis Rourke and the offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a Michigan pass defense that ranks 95th nationally right now.
Beyond that, as good as Indiana's defense is - and they're Top 10 in America - they haven't exactly faced the most dynamic of offenses, especially ones that could run the ball. Did you know that the best run attack they've faced all year is Washington, which ranks 77th nationally, and that seven of their eight FBS opponents rank 100th or worse in the category?
Point being, I think Michigan is going to be able to move the ball a little better than expected, and Indiana will also, because again, all Coach Cig does is win. Google him, people.
Final score in Bloomington: Indiana 34, Michigan 20, as the Hoosiers' dream season continues and the over hits.
No. 20 Colorado (-3.5) at Texas Tech: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX
So, Colorado takes the field off their second bye sitting at 6-2, ranked in the Top 20 of the first College Football Playoff poll, with a real pathway to the Big 12 title game.
Just like we all predicted in the preseason, right?!
And here is the crazy part - with their final three opponents sitting at a combined 2-14 in the Big 12 - this is actually probably the toughest game left on the Buffs schedule.
And it's one where all the matchups favor Coach Prime.
Really when breaking down Colorado games, it comes down to one simple things: Can you get to Shedeur and make him uncomfortable enough to throw him off his rhythm just a bit. Because if not, he's going to sit in the pocket and cook you, mainly because he's the best QB in college football.
Well, Texas Tech currently ranks 133rd in pass defense and 87th in tackles for loss. So that's probably not a great sign.
At the same time, let's also give credit to this Colorado defense, which is playing way better than anyone realizes right now. Does anyone realize that the Buffs have quietly gone from 130th nationally in total defense down to 64th, and are giving up 100 fewer yards per game than a season ago?
I could go on and on, but the matchups favor Colorado and I'll also add that they've covered six straight games coming into this one.
Give me the Buffs 34-20, as their pursuit of the Big 12 title and playoff appearance continue.
UCF at Arizona State (-2.5): Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
For the first time this season, welcome to the picks, Arizona State! That's right, to the credit of Kenny Dillingham, he has quietly built a very solid team and program. The Sun Devils are sitting at 6-2 overall in Dillingham's second season.
Yet here is the deceptive part of that 6-2 record: Yes, the Sun Devils are 6-2. But in one of their losses (to Cincinnati) their starting quarterback Sam Leavitt didn't play. In their other loss (Texas Tech) they actually outgained the Red Raiders by over 100 yards and somehow found a way to lose.
The bottom line is that they are quietly, actually probably a bit better than that 6-2 record suggests.
UCF meanwhile? Well, I'm not sure what they even are under Gus Malzahn. The Knights are sitting at 4-5 overall and off a nice win against Arizona. The problem is, Arizona is imploding in front of our eyes and has quit on first year head coach Brent Brennan. Before that game UCF had lost five straight (most in embarrassing fashion) while starting three different quarterbacks. Their run game is still solid (Top 10 nationally) but the Sun Devils run defense is one of the best in the Big 12.
In the end, there's a lot to like about the Sun Devils... and I'm not quite sure what UCF even is. Dillingham's squad rolls at home Saturday night.
No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU (OVER 58.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Ah, yes. Alabama-LSU. The big one. Saturday night. Death Valley. With College Football Playoff elimination stakes on the line.
Just like it should be.
Yet here's my question: Now entering November, are we sure just how good either team is?! It's crazy to say, but I'm honestly not sure.
Here's what I do think I know about Alabama: I think we may have overreacted to their offensive struggles after back-to-back bad performances against South Carolina and Tennessee a few weeks ago. Yes, the Tide struggled to move the ball in both games (they basically couldn't even block South Carolina) but in hindsight, those are clearly two of the best defenes in college football. The Tide looked much better a week later against Missouri, rushing for close to 300 yards on the ground.
Where I'm concerned a little bit is about a defense, that also gave up over four yards per carry against a battered Missouri team. LSU can't run the ball all that well, but should be at least a bit more effective than they were the last time they played, two weeks ago against Texas A&M. And we know Garrett Nussmeier can sling it, as the LSU pass offense is the best the Crimson Tide have seen all year.
I don't have a great feel for who will actually win this game - my lean is Alabama - but I could see a scenario where both teams end up putting up 30+ points.
The best bet to me is the over, in a fun, SEC shoot out to decide who stays alive in the SEC title and playoff races.
Last Week: 3-3
This season: 34-17
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