Well folks, we're here.
It's Wednesday. We survived the five-day football-fest that is the opening weekend of college football season.
The best part: We're back for Week 2, and better than ever. What a time to be alive!
First off, hope you tailed the picks last week as we finished a very productive 4-2 overall, and 4-1 once we got to the main card on Saturday and Sunday. Big shout out to USC for allowing us to finish off the weekend in style.
At the same time, while I'm truly pleased with our Week 1 slate, I have a confession to make: Week 2 is often the toughest card of the season for me. That's because after eight months of analyzing Week 1 games, we get thrown right into the fire of Week 2. We have less time to think and prepare for this one, and oh, it's also human nature to overreact to everything we saw Week 1.
Because of it, we have a smaller card this week (just five games), but still the show must go on.
As always, the odds are presented by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Now, to the picks
No. 3 Texas at No. 10 Michigan (UNDER 43.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
The first truly big, Big Noon game gives us the defending national champion, two playoff teams from a season ago, and just an all-time great "helmet game."
You know, the games where you just see the two helmets and you immediately get fired up?! That's what we've got here.
Unfortunately, what I also think we have is a truly predictable game in terms of what the outcome will be.
The bottom line is that even in good times of the last three seasons, Michigan preferred to rely on the run game, offensive line and defense to win close, low-scoring slugfests. It's been their MO and considering they still haven't figured out their quarterback situation, and that the defense is the strength of this roster, that isn't going to change Saturday.
As a matter of fact, Steve Sarkisian basically acknowledged as much, saying in his Monday morning presser that he expected an "NFL feel" to this one, in terms of total possessions and plays run.
As I said on our Tuesday preview show, I expect a Texas win, but would be shocked if either team broke the 24-point mark.
Take the UNDER Saturday in Ann Arbor.
Arkansas at No. 16 Oklahoma State (OVER 62.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
While it's important not to overreact to Week 1, one thing that I think is abundantly clear is this: Bobby Petrino, yeah, he still knows how to design an offense.
That's right, the former Arkansas head coach is now back in Fayetteville, this time as an offensive coordinator. And while the internet has given us roughly 40,000 memes since the day the hire was announced, the guy proved again last week: Between the white lines, he's as good as anyone. In Week 1 the Hogs put up 70 points - 70!!!! And while I know some will say "it's only Pine-Bluff" it's worth noting that the Hogs pulled their starters in the second quarter, and still managed to score on every single possession they had the ball.
Yes, they had 10 possessions and finished with 10 touchdown drives. There's a reason they call the man "Bobby MF'ing Petrino" in Hogland. The dude is still great at what he does.
Now that Arkansas team will be going up against an Oklahoma State team that remains elite on offense (44 points in their opener) but also wasn't very good on defense a season ago. The Cowboys gave up an average of nearly 29 points and 441 yards per game last season.
Therefore, expect a high-scoring, back and forth shoot out.
I think the Hogs can pull the upset. But the OVER is the best to make here.
South Carolina at Kentucky (-10.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
A couple thoughts here, and a couple thoughts only.
One, I've never been a Shane Beamer guy. Nothing personal. Not rooting against him. Just don't think he's good. Last year they went 5-7, and here's a hot take: I actually think they would've been much worse without Spencer Rattler. The defense was especially bad, finishing last in rush defense, sacks and TFL's a year ago.
Which brings me to last Saturday against Old Dominion. I know we don't want to overreact to Week 1, but I don't think that was a fluke or lookahead deal. Old Dominion outgained South Carolina, their QB completed 44 percent of his passes. If the Monarchs didn't turn the ball over four times they easily could've won.
Then there's Kentucky.
Listen, I know Mark Stoops isn't perfect and I know he has his critics. But he generally has his teams ready to play early in the year.
Do you know that since the start of 2021, Kentucky is 14-0 in September games? I know part of that is soft scheduling, but they are 4-0 during that stretch in SEC play as well.
With an excellent defense and improved QB play from Brock Vandagriff, I expect the Wildcats to roll here.
Kentucky wins 31-10 in Lexington.
Colorado at Nebraska (UNDER 57.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Ah yes, a rivalry that any child of the 90's or early 2000's can't help but love: Colorado vs. Nebraska.
The Huskers come in off a dominant win over UTEP. They have Dylan Raiola at quarterback. And are more than a TD favorite. So Big Red rolls at home, right?!
I'm just not sold.
First off, I simply didn't see the Colorado game like so many others a week ago. While the o-line needs work, the defense held up fine to me - especially after they stopped committing dumb penalties in the first half. Of the 448 yards they gave up, 49 came on the final play of the game, and 88 on the final possession when they were in prevent defense. They basically shut down North Dakota State for the entire second half until the final minutes.
Then there's Nebraska.
As improved as this team is - and they're improved - a couple things stand out.
One, the secondary was the weakness last year, which plays into Colorado's hands with their big-play passing game. Also, Colorado's defense was mostly burned in the run game last week with quarterback keepers from Cam Miller, which won't be an issue with Raiola.
Ultimately, I think Colorado's defense is better than people realize, and Nebraska shuts down the Colorado run game, keeping this game in check on both sides.
I think Colorado can pull off the upset. But i expect this to be like a 27-24 game either way.
Give me the UNDER of 57.5
No. 24 NC State vs. No. 14 Tennessee (OVER 60.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
One of the toughest things about evaluating games in Week 2, is to make sure and not overreact to what you saw in Week 1. And if there's ever a game to make sure that's the case, this is the one.
Bluntly, Tennessee looked as good as any team in the country in college football last week. Nico Iamaleava not only lived up to the hype, but I would argue exceeded it, as Tennessee put up 69 points (nice!), scoring 45 in the first half alone.
Meanwhile, NC State was in an absolute dog fight with Western Carolina until late in the fourth quarter.
Because of it, many just assume this is a blowout. But I don't see it.
First off, the one thing that NC State can absolutely do is chuck the ball all over the field - Grayson McCall is under center, and Kevin Concepcion might be the best wide receiver in college football that no one knows about. The true sophomore had nine catches for 121 yards last week, incredibly, his fourth 100-yard receiving game in just 14 career appearances.
That NC State passing game now goes up against an entirely new secondary for Tennessee.
The Wolfpack meanwhile are probably a little bit stronger in the secondary, but one thing I don't think Josh Heupel gets enough credit for is his ability to adapt a game-plan based on personnel and opponent. Just last year the Vols basically became a ground and pound team with Joe Milton at QB, this after being one of the best passing teams in America with Hendon Hooker a year before.
This is all a long-winded way of me saying Tennessee is putting up points against everyone this year, and I believe NC State will be able to get theirs against this secondary too.
I'll take the OVER, my final pick in an otherwise quiet week.
Week 1 Record: 4-2 ATS