Well folks, it's Wednesday - and you know what that means: It's time to make some more college football picks.
And man, oh man, is this always a fun time to be making these picks.
Honestly doesn't late September/early October just kind of feel like the time, where college football is extra college football-y. We kind of know a little bit about these teams; who's good, who's not and who's just flat out angry (sorry Auburn fans, it's true). But there's still enough of the season where most fans - especially in his 12-team playoff era - feel excited about where their team is, or could potentially be going?!
It does to me, and with it, let's get to the picks after another successful week.
That's right, the picks finished 3-2 last week, our third winning week in four, with our numbers overall sitting at 13-7 on the year (good for 65 percent).
Now, let's get to the Week 5 picks.
And always remember, you can get more breakdowns on our College Football Betting Podcast - where we deep dive into all the big games.
Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss (UNDER 52.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Yes, I already know what you're thinking: "Torres, you're taking an Ole Miss under?! What are you, crazy? If you want to give away your money, you can just gladly send it to me."
Which I get, I really do. And believe me, I'm prepared to look stupid come Saturday mid-day.
At the same time, there are a few reasons why I like this play.
One, betting unders on Kentucky and Mark Stoops in big, SEC road games is one of our favorite, time-honored traditions. Stoops is a notoriously tight coach - ask any Georgia fan - who somehow gets tired away from Lexington.
As a matter of fact, of Kentucky's last eight SEC road games, only two have gone over this 52.5 point number. One, was in a beatdown at the hands of Georgia last year, when the Dawgs may have been the best team in the country. The other was against Vanderbilt, in a game which the Wildcats had two pick sixes in that game.
So basically, if Kentucky isn't playing the best team in the SEC or the worst team in the SEC, it's pretty low scoring.
As for Ole Miss, we know this team is damn good.
At the same time, this is by far the best defense they'll have faced all season, one that shut Georgia down just a few weeks ago. Beyond that, the 11am CT kick-off probably doesn't help, for a fan-base that is notorious for enjoying the tailgates more than the games themselves.
Add in the part where Ole Miss has a legit defense too, and this one has 30-13 written all over it, an Ole Miss win and an easy under hit.
No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-4.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
There really is nothing else to say here, other than this is an interesting game, against two teams who fancy themselves Big 12 contenders that are each coming off a loss a week ago. Neither can lose this game, and both could be on the outside looking in of the Big 12 title chase (and the league's automatic bid to the playoff with a loss here).
So yeah, the stakes are high, and I'll just be transparent: I like Kansas State. A lot. And I say this as a guy who wasn't all that excited about them coming into the season.
The bottom line is that while both teams lost last week, one was not like the other. Oklahoma State got dominated at home, by an admittedly awesome Utah team. At the same, the Utes were starting a true freshman at QB and it was never really competitive.
Kansas State on the other hand, lost on the road at BYU, in a night game, at altitude, in a matchup where they had three turnovers and gave up a punt return for a touchdown. It was also a game where the Wildcats outgained BYU, had more first downs and a better third down conversion.
The exact circumstances that led to that loss seem very difficult to repeat.
Add in the fact that Kansas State's strength (running the football) goes up against Oklahoma State's weakness (stopping the run) and this feels like a Wildcat rout to me.
I say this as a guy who wagered on the K-State win total under this season, but I like the Wildcats big here.
Colorado at UCF (OVER 64.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX
So let's start with the obvious: Last week's Colorado finish was awesome. Whether you love Coach Prime or loathe him, the finish was everything that makes college football great.
That's also what should terrify you if you're a Colorado or Coach Prime fan: America's most public team, coming off a second straight win opened as an 11-point favorite, and has been consistently been bet up since.
Rather than taking UCF (don't call them "Central Florida") at a bad number though, I'll instead take the OVER here.
The bottom line is that UCF might be the worst possible matchup for Colorado in this game. The one thing Colorado's defense has really struggled with this year is mobile quarterbacks, and UCF has one in KJ Jefferson. Beyond that, they have, quite literally, the most dynamic rushing attack in America, ranked No. 1 in rush offense. They also have more rushes of 10+ yards than anyone in America, and have done in just three games (when most teams have played four).
Then there is the other side of things.
As bad of a matchup as UCF is for Colorado when they have the ball, the Buffaloes might be equally as bad for UCF when Shedeur and company get the ball. Did you know that through three games, UCF ranks dead last in total sacks (one) and also 115th nationally in TFL's.
Bottom line if you can't get after the quarterback, Shedeur will cook you, and it wouldn't surprise me if these two teams combined for 70+ points.
Just take the over, enjoy the game and watch the points fly.
No. 21 Oklahoma at Auburn (UNDER 45.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
You know who ISN'T going to combine for 70+ points? Two teams who's quarterback situations could best be described as "chaotic" that's who.
That's right, offense will be at a premium on the Plains Saturday, not just because these teams are incapable, but because frankly, both coaches are terrified of their own quarterback rooms. We all know what Hugh Freeze had to say about his QB's this week, all while Brent Venables announced that Michael Hawkins Jr. will get the start over Jackson Arnold on Saturday.
Beyond two scared head coaches, there's also the fact that Oklahoma could be without their two best wide receivers (Nic Anderson and Deion Burks), meaning Brent Venables will almost certainly play things close to the vest. Auburn's turnover woes have to also especially be concerning for Freeze, considering, umm, Oklahoma LEADS THE COUNTRY IN FORCED TURNOVERS!!!!!!
Bottom line, I kind of expect this game to play out like one of those old, pre-shot clock NBA games where both teams just sat on the ball and games ended with scores like "10-6."
If either team breaks 20 it'll be a miracle.
Under, under, UNDER!!!!
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (UNDER 51.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
While I can't quite say I'd be stunned if either team broke 20 points in this game, the truth is that the situation in Arkansas-Texas A&M is eerily similar to Auburn-Oklahoma.
One school doesn't totally know who their QB is (A&M), the other is losing faith in their QB's ability to throw it (Arkansas) and both would rather run the football. Each ranks in the Top 10 nationally in rush attempts per game, and they rank second and third in the SEC in time of possession.
I could go on and on, but neither team is going to allow their QB to lose this game, and will instead rely on field position, defense and the run game to try and eek out an ugly win.
I'm not sure who I actually like to win (my hunch is Arkansas by a nose) but I do like the under here.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama (-1): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Oh yeah, this is the big one. The game we've all been waiting for. And no different than one of the games mentioned above, the line has moved dramatically in Tuscaloosa, with Alabama going from a 2.5 point underdog on Sunday to a 1-point favorite here.
So, roll tide, right?!
Actually, yes.
Bluntly, I just like this matchup for the Tide.
Beyond the fact that they're at home - which is always huge but is especially big when opponents are pretty evenly matched - there are also other factors as well.
The Tide's offensive line appears healthy, a huge deal going up against a Georgia front that game up 170 yards rushing to Kentucky a few weeks ago.
Beyond that, while it's early, there's something that just doesn't seem right with Carson Beck and this offense. Again, going back to the Kentucky game, Georgia barely broke 100 yards rushing, and Beck has been good, but not elite this season. A year after completing 72 percent of his passes, he's down to about 68 percent, and 66 percent in the two big ones so far, Clemson and at Kentucky.
Maybe the competition is just that good, and that's what has caused the slight regression. Or maybe, Beck misses his security blanket in Brock Bowers.
Bottom line, I do believe this game will be close, and could go either way late.
But at home, and probably playing a little bit better, more consistent football right now, I'm taking the Tide.
Stay aways:
Louisville at Notre Dame (-6.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC - This is just one I can't get excited about on either side. Louisville is 3-0 this season, with home wins coming against Austin Peay, Jacksonville State and Georgia Tech. And in the Georgia Tech game they had 57 total yards rushing. Notre Dame meanwhile has been pretty meh on offense, including an incredible four straight games where touted transfer Riley Leonard has yet to break 200 yards passing. The under is probably the smart side here.
Wisconsin at USC (-15.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS - USC is winning this game, but Wisconsin runs the ball just well enough where I think they can cover. Big, fat, no thank you.
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-17.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC - So Illinois is coming off of a big, national TV win against a ranked opponent on the road.... and are still a three-possession underdog going into Happy Valley? It feels like Vegas is BEGGING you to take the Illini, but on the other hand are you really betting Drew Allar to cover the 17.5? Me neither.
Arizona at No. 11 Utah (-11.5): Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN - Utah is a permanent stay-away until I see Cam Rising play more than two consecutive games without getting injury. Arizona is a permanent stay away until I figure out what the hell this team is under Brent Brennan. No. Thank. You.
No. 8 Oregon (-24.5) at UCLA: Saturday, 11 p.m. ET, FOX - First off, as a guy who hosts Fox Sports Radio until 2 a.m. ET Saturday, I'm just excited to have a real game in my window. I also can't bet the Ducks as a 24.5 point favorite until I consistently see the team I was expecting in the preseason.
Last week: 3-2
Season: 13-7
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