Well people, it's Wednesday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Week 6 college football picks.
And well, I'm just gonna say it: The picks are coming off a MONSTER week.
Last week we went 5-1 overall against the spread, with our only loss coming when Payton Thorne threw a pick-six to force the Auburn-Oklahoma game over (and boy, trust me, I was pissed). Overall, we're also sitting at 18-8 against the spread on the season, with four of five winning weeks so far.
So yeah, we're excited, but also can't get too high or too low. Which is why it's time to move ahead to Week 6.
As always odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook - and if I've told you once, I've told you a million times: Follow our College Football Betting Pod.
And gives you the best CFB Betting information anywhere on the 'net!
Now, to the Week 6 picks!
No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (UNDER 48.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
This, at least on paper, appears to be a quieter week in the world of college football - signified by the fact that Missouri-A&M is the only matchup of Top 25 opponents all weekend.
It's also a matchup of a team who, I think we know who they are at this point, versus one we know little about.
Let's start with the team we know a lot about, and that's Texas A&M. It's kind of wild, but in one off-season, Mike Elko has taken the Aggies from one of the most dysfunctional lots in the country, to frankly, a team that you know what you're going to get every single week.
They aren't even going to attempt to pass the ball (last in the SEC in passing) but want to run it down your throat. They also want to control the line of scrimmage, play lights out defense and win ugly.
But hey, winning ugly is better than not winning at all under Jimbo Fisher, right?
Then there's Missouri, and transparently, I don't really know what to make of the Tigers. They're coming off a bye so should be crisp, but also should've lost to Vanderbilt at home and struggled with Boston College as well.
But like A&M, they do a good job controlling the line of scrimmage and the ball. They actually lead the SEC in time of possession early this season and are a Top 20 run defense in America as well.
Therefore, when you take two teams that want to run the ball, chew clock and both play sound defense, take the UNDER here.
Like A&M's game against Arkansas last week, this one has 21-17 written all over it/
Iowa (+19.5) at No. 3 Ohio State: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Serious question: At any point in our lives as a college football viewer has Ohio State ever felt less talked about than this season?! That's not a criticism of the Buckeyes, but wins over Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall and Michigan State (in a game streamed on Peacock, none the less) don't exactly scream "battle tested" or "the forefront of the college football radar."
The good news is, we're going to start to find out about these Buckeyes the next few weeks. Obviously next week is the game EVERYONE has circled, but let's not undersell the Iowa team coming to the Horseshoe either on Saturday.
To Iowa's credit their offense has exploded this season, averaging 32 points through four games - which honestly is like most teams scoring 70 a game. On top of that, they still play lights out defense, especially on the ground, where they rank No. 3 nationally in rush defense and are one of only two teams that has yet to yield a rushing touchdown this season.
With Ohio State, I expect the offense to move the ball and have success, but nearly three touchdowns just feels like too much here. Especially with an improved Iowa offense. The Iowa defense. And Oregon looming next week.
Give me Buckeyes 27, Iowa 17 and an easy cover in this game.
Auburn (+24.5) at No. 5 Georgia: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Well folks, we made it. Here I am. The last, single defender of Auburn football in America.
Ok, well that's not totally true. I'm not an Auburn football defender. But what I am is someone who sees them for what they are: A team that is 2-3, with two one possession losses, all while leading the country in turnovers.
It's simple football stuff, if they literally "only" turned the ball over twice instead of three times against Cal, they win. And if Payton Thorne literally does anything other than throw the ball to Oklahoma late in the fourth on Saturday, they win that one too. And that doesn't even include an Arkansas game, where Auburn outgained the Hogs by over 100 yards.
To be clear, those aren't excuses. Those are just facts.
Well, simple question: If Auburn was 4-1 coming into this game instead of 2-3, what the line be? It'd still be big, but not 24.5.
Because of it, I like the Tigers to cover here.
Especially against a Georgia team that is both coming off a physically and emotionally exhausting game against Alabama. Not to mention that Georgia to me just hasn't hit its stride yet, with Carson Beck and the run game struggling.
Bottom line, I'm not saying Auburn wins.
But this game has 24-14 Georgia win written all over it, and an easy cover for the Tigers.
No. 12 Ole Miss at South Carolina (UNDER 53.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
So, look, we all know the story coming into this game is Ole Miss and their need to avoid a second straight loss. Even in a 12-team playoff era, and even with a manageable schedule, there are only so many L's you can take before you're on the outside looking in.
But at the same time, let me give credit to Shane Beamer. This was kind of just a team that I had ear-marked for a 6-6-ish type season. But they enter this one at 3-1 and frankly easily could've been 4-0 and beaten LSU if LaNorris Sellers hadn't gotten hurt.
Well by all accounts Sellers is back, and he's back with a defense that I believe can give Ole Miss fits. Listen, I don't think Ole Miss' loss to Kentucky was some huge indictment on Rebels - I just think Kentucky's defense is that good.
At the same time, so is South Carolina's. They can get after the quarterback (28 TFL's, 14 sacks through four games) and that strong pass rush has helped the secondary, which ranked No. 23 nationally in pass defense.
Therefore, let me ask you a question: When I say South Carolina has a QB who can make plays with his feet (and can control the clock in the process), and a defense that can make life uncomfortable for a QB, what does that sound like?
The same team that slowed down Ole Miss last week, right?
Add in an Ole Miss defense which is still damn good, and this is a game that I could truly see staying close and low scoring into the fourth quarter.
I like the UNDER more than I do either side here.
No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas (UNDER 60.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Speaking of unders - I'll be honest: This number feels way, WAY too big for me.
Yes, Tennessee is the nation's top scoring offense. But as we saw a few weeks ago, on the road in a tough environment he is going to take ball out of Nico's hands and let the run game and defense take over.
Speaking of run game and defense, Arkansas wants to play the same way. The Hogs are a Top 25 rush offense, and as Taylen Green's accuracy continues to wane, it feels like they want to put less on his throwing arm and more on his feet, Ja'Quinden Jackson and the o-line.
Razorback Stadium will be rocking, and Tennessee wins.
But I just don't see this game getting anywhere close to this number.
No. 10 Michigan at Washington (-2.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Has any rematch of a national championship game ever felt less interesting or relevant than this one?!
Yeah, Michigan and Washington played for a title this calendar year. But with two new coaches and roughly 400 talented players off to the NFL since the last time these two met, these two squads couldn't be ANY different from when they met in January.
With that said, I won't bore you too much with details here, but let's just think about these teams logically.
Washington is 3-2, with the two losses coming in games where they comfortably outgained the opponent. One, was a true road environment last week at Rutgers, the other a neutral site to Washington State.
Michigan meanwhile, has won its last two games to open Big Ten play. But they were outgained in both. In the USC game they needed a pick-six to win, and in the Minnesota game they needed a short field off a turnover to seal the victory as well. The Wolverines didn't find the end zone once in the second half last week.
I could keep going, but Michigan is far from the 10th best team in the country, and Washington - to its credit - is a little further than I expected under Jedd Fisch.
They win this one in a raucous night game at Husky Stadium.
No. 10 Miami at Cal (+10.5): Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This, my friends is what we call a "situational play."
Miami is coming off a wild, emotional win, in a game that frankly they (probably) should've lost. They now have to travel across country and play a 10:30 ET kickoff. Oh, and did I mention that they have a bye after this, which I'm sure, whether intentional or not, the team is looking ahead to.
Then, there's Cal.
The Golden Bears aren't only at home but are fresh and coming off a bye. They're sitting at 3-1 overall, and probably should be 4-0, losing a game to Florida State (eww) in which they got into the red zone five times, and ended up with nine points.
Like, I don't even know how that's possible.
Add in the fact that Cal forces a ton of turnovers (it certainly helps that they played Auburn earlier in the year) against a sorta-turnover prone QB in Cam Ward, and this just has "ugly Miami win" or "late night upset loss" written all over it.
Don't go to bed too early, because again, I think this game ultimately ends up getting weird, in our first edition of "ACC After Dark."
Stay Aways:
No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State - Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN: To their credit, Clemson is playing like a Top 10 team in the country. Florida State is playing like a bottom five team in the Power 4. But with DJ U out, a night game and the weirdness a back-up QB can bring, I could see just enough weird stuff happening where Clemson wins, but FSU covers.
UCF (-2.5) at Florida - Saturday 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network: You know things are bad at Florida when they're playing a UCF team which just got embarrassed on national TV, the Gators are coming off a bye... and are still a home underdog. I actually like the OVER than either side here, since Florida can't stop the run and UCF can't get to the quarterback. But rather than betting on a road underdog I don't love, or a Florida team I really don't love, think I'll just be staying away from this one.
Last week: 5-1
Season: 18-8