Well everybody, it's Friday- and I apologize for the delay, but.... you know what that means: It's time to make some college football picks!
Yes, the picks are a few days late - and I apologize as I was traveling all week. But you know what I don't apologize for - HOW HOT THE PICKS HAVE BEEN, BABY!!!!
That's right, we're coming off a 5-2 week and are 10-3 over the last two weeks. On the season we're sitting at 23-10 ATS, a cool 69 percent clip. I promise you no one giving out picks on the internet is hitting like we have.
Yet despite it, as the old saying says: Nobody cares, work harder. So we press on.
Below, are the Week 7 college football picks, oh and if you want more college football - and want to do your boy Torres a solid download "College Football Betting" which drops every Thursday morning.
Also, one note: We recorded our Week 7 preview show on Wednesday - when these picks are made. So all lines are as of Wednesday, although I know some have moved.
All the more reason to make sure you're subscribed to the College Football Betting Pod.
Washington at Iowa (-2.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
I'll be quick here because we have MUCH bigger games to preview, but for the second week in a row I'm backing America's team: That's right baby, we're rolling with Iowa.
First off, I really don't take too much out of the Hawkeyes loss to Ohio State because (spoiler alert), I, like most of America, think the Buckeyes are just damn good. As for Washington, while they did beat Michigan last weekend, they trailed going into the fourth quarter and the game was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Traveling back East off an emotional win for a noon kickoff isn't ideal for the Huskies, as the Hawkeyes win and cover.
No. 4 Penn State at USC (+4.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Alright, let's start to roll into the big ones, and let's get to a game which might have as many high-stakes implications as any this weekend.
Yes, USC vs. Penn State. And yes, for one team that truly believes it should be in the playoff (Penn State) and for another that truly thought they were improved but already has two losses (USC) there is a lot at stake Saturday in the Coliseum.
So which team and program do I trust more? Sorry America, it's Lincoln Riley and the Trojans.
Look, I understand that USC shouldn't be losing to Minnesota. But at the same time... PUT SOME RESPECT ON PJ FLECK'S NAME!!! The Gophers have a Top 10 defense nationally and the No. 1 pass defense. I'm not calling them the '85 Bears, but at home, a week before the Trojans have a Top 10 team coming to town, you can see where they could get beaten.
That's not an excuse. But it is an explanation.
As for Penn State, I'm sorry but I've just seen this story before. Every year they start off hot, we hype them up only for them to crumble when they face real competition. Beyond that, I think this game is an interesting litmus test of, can they beat a team when they probably are going to have to score 24+ points to win?
As good as this defense is, they haven't exactly been tested (Illinois, UCLA and Kent State rank 100th or worse nationally in total offense) and Drew Allar has yet to prove in two-plus years that he can put a team on his back and lead scoring drives when they need them.
One thing you can't say about USC: You can't say they aren't battle-tested.
They faced elite defenses in much tougher environments and were really a play or two away from winning both games.
Add in the fact that I'm just not sold Penn State can get to 24 points if they have to, and I think USC wins and covers.
Take the points if you'd feel more comfortable backing the Lions.
Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Texas (UNDER 50.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So this is one of the games where the number has moved, and this is why you should be listening to the College Football Betting Pod: On Wednesday, the over/under was 50.5 - and it's now down to 48.5.
Again, just a quick plug for the pod.
Now to the game itself, and the one thing we know about the Red River Game is, weird stuff is going to happen. Of the last 10 times these teams have met in the Cotton Bowl, nine were decided by one score or less. The only year it wasn't was Brent Venables first year at Oklahoma, when they literally had to play a third-string QB because Dillon Gabriel was hurt.
So, if we assume it will be close, a low-scoring avenue seems to be the way to go.
Oklahoma knows it can only win the game if they can rely on their defense and keep Texas off the field, and are the Longhorns going to want to put too much on Quinn Ewers plate coming off an injury? Especially with Georgia next week.
I do think Texas grinds out the win here, but don't love the point spread. Give me a 24-10 win, and UNDER hitting with ease.
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU (UNDER 63.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So, before I get into this game, let me state the obvious: I get a LOT of stuff wrong. A lot. All sorts of stuff, all the time.
But I also occasionally get stuff right, and one game I nailed last week was Arkansas-Tennessee. The over/under in that game was 60.5 points, and I said on the betting show I thought it was off by at least 15 points. As it turned out, it was WAY more as the final score was 19-14. The over/under could've been 40.5 and it wouldn't have hit.
I bring it up, because - and I mentioned this earlier in the week - I feel the same about this game. If I set the over/under, I'd have it about 50.5. Instead, it opened at 64.5 and is now down to 62.5 (I bet it at 63.5). So apparently, bettors agree with me.
First off, let's give Ole Miss credit. Lane Kiffin prioritized defense in the portal, and it has come up big for him so far. While the competition hasn't been the best, Ole Miss currently has the No. 1 total defense in America, and is coming off a game where they held South Carolina to three points at home.
While I'm not saying they totally shut down Garrett Nussmeier and company in Baton Rouge, I do think they give the LSU offense fits. This is a team that hasn't really proven an ability to run the ball all year, and I'm not sure it starts going up against Walter Nolen and this Rebels' defense.
As for when Ole Miss has the ball, anyone notice that Jaxson Dart has quietly struggled since the competition has ramped up in the SEC? He's completing just 59 percent of his passes in SEC play, and my hunch is Lane Kiffin doesn't put too much on his plate.
Ultimately, I think Ole Miss wins, but considering they haven't won in Baton Rouge since 2008, that seems like a wild thing to bet on.
But the UNDER? Yeah, I feel great about that - it's my best bet of the week.
No. 2 Ohio State (-4) at No. 3 Oregon: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Alright let's get to the big one, Saturday night, Eugene, Oregon.
And let me just say this: If you know how much I hate taking road favorites, then you definitely know how much I love the Buckeyes.
It's funny, because through the years I've become known as a Ryan Day critic. I don't care how much he beats Rutgers or Illinois or Purdue, he is judged by competing for Big Ten titles and national titles. And for most of the last few years he hasn't.
But to his credit with a virtually unlimited NIL war chest he went out and probably put together the most explosive offense in college football. But more than that, the real story that isn't being told: He got Chip Kelly as his offensive coordinator.
To me, more than Quinshon Judkins or Jeremiah Smith, Chip Kelly is the x-factor with this team.
An offense that couldn't run the ball all of last year has been explosive, and an o-line that couldn't block is now opening up holes at will. I'm not saying that will happen on Saturday against a good Oregon front, but at the same time, if you can put up 400+ yards and 35 points against an elite Iowa front last week, don't tell me you can't have success against Oregon on Saturday.
Then on the other side of the ball, it just doesn't feel like it's totally clicking for Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks. Yes, this team has been improved the last three games, but if you watched closely, the win over Michigan State wasn't as convincing as it might appear on paper. The Spartans had a turnover on the goal line, Gabriel had a couple bad throws Michigan State couldn't take advantage of, and the Ducks walked out with a win that was probably a bit closer than the score indicated.
To be clear, I'm not saying Oregon is bad - but Ohio State might be that good on both sides of the ball.
Final score, Ohio State 28, Oregon 17 as the Buckeyes make their argument as best team in college football.
No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (+4.5): Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Yet another game where the money is coming in on our side. This one opened at K-State -5.5, I bet it at -4.5 midweek and now it's down to 3.5.
And with good reason: Colorado is winning this game outright.
While Kansas State is a solid team, they have struggled on the road this year, with one loss outright (BYU) and another game that could've been one. And they struggle defending the pass, which is bad news against Shedeur Sanders and Co.
This article is running long, so let me say this: Colorado wins, and puts themselves in the thick of the Big 12 title race.
Last Week: 5-2
This season: 23-10