It's Wednesday and you know what that means... IT'S TIME TO MAKE SOME WEEK 8 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS, BABY!!!
That's right, we're somehow at the halfway point of the college football season, and it feels like we really are starting to get a feel for these teams. Their strengths. Their weaknesses. Who's good who isn't.
It's been a fun ride so far. And the best part is, we're just getting started.
Speaking of "just getting started" the picks bounced back nicely last week, going 4-2 overall. Bluntly, it could've been 4-1-1 if I'd just listened to my own dumb advice and taken Oregon plus the points, rather than taking them outright. Oh, well, ya live and learn I suppose.
Anyway, it's time to move onto Week 8 and what a slate we have.
As always, lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
And remember, if you're not subscribed to the College Football Betting Pod - shame on you. We're giving out great information there, and if you're not listening, you're flat missing out.
Penn State (+4.5) at Ohio State: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Why beat around the bush when we can open the column with thoughts on the single biggest game of the weekend: A Top 10 matchup between Penn State and Ohio State. At this point we know what's at stake, both this season, and with the legacies of these two programs and coaches.
Cn James Franklin win the big game? Is Ryan Day's team soft?
So, let's dive in.
And bluntly, I think you could argue that of every major program, we know the least about Penn State. That tends to happen when your schedule to this point includes wins over West Virginia, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern and UMass.
At the same time, based on what we know at this moment, this team does everything well. They have a future NFL quarterback in Drew Allar, the No. 1 rushing attack in the Big Ten and a Top 10 run and pass defense.
Put simply, this will be the most physical front Ohio State will have seen to this point, and probably the best secondary as well.
As for Ohio State, the biggest question really isn't about scheme or talent or whatever, but ultimately, who will actually be healthy enough to play in this game. Incredibly, the Buckeyes first and third leading rushers (TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams) both missed last week's win over Purdue, as did second leading receiver Emeka Egbuka. To add insult to injury, the team's second leading rusher (Chip Traynum) and best corner (Denzel Ward) both left the game with injuries.
Ryan Day has been coy with updates this week, but it feels safe to assume some of those guys won't play. And the ones that do won't be at 100 percent. It's also worth noting that Marvin Harrison Jr. has been dealing with nagging injuries all season, and whispers out of Columbus are that Kyle McCord isn't 100 percent either.
Because of it, I can't help but take the Nittany Lions and the points here.
One, I actually think even at 100 percent, this is the closest the talent has been between the two teams in years. And that's assuming both teams are 100 percent, and as mentioned, Ohio State is not. The Nittany Lions meanwhile got a nice break in the schedule with a bye and then game against UMass last week, meaning they've essentially had three weeks to get ready for this game.
Sometimes outside stuff just works against you. And I think it is here for Ohio State.
I like the Nittany Lions to win, but after getting burned by Oregon last week, will strictly take the points here.
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-6): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
To me, this game is simply a "trust your eyes" matchup.
What do I mean by that?
Well, my eyes tell me that Arkansas honestly isn't far off from being competitive and interesting. I'm not making excuses for a 2-5 start, but at the same time look at the results: There was a field goal loss at LSU. A field goal loss at Alabama. And losses by a touchdown at Ole Miss and BYU.
First off, yes, you read that correctly: Arkansas in the last four weeks has played at Bama, at LSU, at Ole Miss and Texas A&M on a neutral field.
So while this team clearly has its problems - most notably the offensive line - they just went through a gauntlet, and frankly, looked better than a lot of teams would've.
Then, there is what my eyes tell me about Mississippi State - that this team *is* that far off.
From Day 1 I've said that I thought it was a weird decision by new head coach Zach Arnett to go away from the Air Raid offense, but what no one could've anticipated is just how bad this defense has been. In three SEC games so far this season, Mississippi State has given up an average of 39 points, and just two weeks ago gave up over 400 yards to Western Michigan.
Mississippi State is coming off a bye, which concerns me a bit, but Arkansas needs this win.
I think they get a win and a cover Saturday in Fayetteville.
No. 17 Tennessee at No. 11 Alabama (UNDER 48.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
So it's the middle of the season, and halfway through, every team in college football is doing some self-scouting.
Well, let me do a little self-scouting and say this: After last week's Tennessee-Texas A&M game, I spent way too much time focusing on the negative of A&M, and not enough on the positive of the Vols.
To which I say: I'm sorry Vol nation. I am.
As a matter of fact, I think you could argue that Josh Heupel is doing as good of a pure coaching job as anyone in college football. Last year he had Hendon Hooker calling the shots, and his team was basketball on grass - finishing with the most potent passing attack in the SEC.
This year, he realized that he doesn't have Hendon Hooker calling the shots, and instead has built a team around the run game and defense. As hard as it is to believe, Tennessee comes into this game with the No. 1 rush offense in the SEC. And statistically, a defense that is about even with Alabama.
Because of it, the under feels like the play here.
The bottom line is that a year after we saw a Hooker-Bryce Young duel for the ages, it's clear that neither coach trusts his quarterback and will instead rely on their defense.
Taking out Mississippi State (which again has an abysmal defense), Alabama's SEC games have gone as follows: 24-10 win over Ole Miss, 26-20 win over Texas A&M and 24-21 win over Arkansas.
Against Tennessee, I expect another low-scoring affair, with the under feeling like the right side.
South Carolina at No. 20 Missouri (OVER 60): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
While most of the focus will be on Shane Beamer going Jim Carrey in "Liar, Liar" and kicking his own ass this week, the real story is this: Missouri is a damn good football team.
That's right, it's time to put some respect on Eli Drinkwitz's name, baby!!!!
Ok, that might be a bit strong, but the Tigers are a legitimately good football team. And one that has moved the ball on everyone this season. Back at home, I expect them to move the ball against a South Carolina defense that is worst in the SEC, and has given up at least 30 points to four of the five Power 5 teams they've played (ironically, Georgia is the only one who hasn't broken the 30 point barrier).
At the same time, let's give a little credit to Spencer Rattler, who basically is the only saving grace for South Carolina this year, and who is basically the entire offense.
Against a below average Missouri secondary, I expect the Tigers to put up enough points for the over to hit with ease.
No. 13 Ole Miss at Auburn (+6): Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
My favorite betting trend of the year has simply been to listen closely to what Hugh Freeze says in his Monday press conferences, and follow his lead accordingly. The man is nothing if not brutally honest, and before both the Texas A&M and LSU games, he basically told you publicly that his team had no chance to win, and we rode both those to wins and covers.
This week though, it feels as though Freeze thinks his team matches up much more favorably with the opponent.
So, we ride with the Tigers.
One, this rivalry has wildly one-sided through the years. Lane Kiffin actually mentioned this earlier this week and it kind of blew my mind, but Ole Miss - which won in Oxford last year - hasn't beaten Auburn in back-to-back years since 1951 and 1952. Admittedly, the two schools haven't played every year during that stretch, but have played every year since 1990, so we're talking a 30+ year sample size here.
Two, I do just think that Auburn is a different team at home, as opposed to on the road. The last time the Tigers played at Jordan-Hare they played Georgia deep into the fourth quarter with a chance to win. The last time Ole Miss played an SEC road game they put up 10 points total against Bama.
I'm not quite sure if Auburn has enough to win, but I'll take them getting nearly a touchdown at home.
No. 2 Michigan (-24) at Michigan State: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
So, my two big betting strategies this year is "Follow what Hugh Freeze tells you at his Monday press conference" (mentioned above) and "Blindly bet Michigan."
And shame on me, I didn't follow that second one last week, choosing not to back Michigan giving a mere 33.5 points.
Well, much like when I stuck my finger in a light socket when I was eight, I won't make the same mistake twice, people!
The bottom line is that Michigan is a football machine, simply steamrolling everyone in their path. It's fair to argue how good the competition is, but the numbers speak for themselves.
Here are Michigan's last three games:
They were a 17-point favorite at Nebraska - and won by 35
They were a 19-point favorite at Minnesota - and won by 42
They were a 33.5-point favorite against Indiana - and won by 42
As I've said before, they don't just like beating teams, but sucking out their soul, especially on the road.
And on the road, in a big rivalry game, I can't imagine there's anything this particular group will enjoy more than getting everyone in green to leave the stadium before the fourth quarter starts.
No. 14 Utah at No. 18 USC (-7): Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Ok, I'm going to go ahead and say something blasphemous: I know everyone likes to poke at Lincoln Riley, and much of it is justified. But when he has said the last few weeks that the defense hasn't been USC's problem, he's right.
And as he said this week, their problem last week was Caleb Williams.
Listen, we all know Williams is an incredible talent. But we can also acknowledge the last few weeks, he's tried to hard to make the highlight plays rather than the smart ones. Yes, the offensive line isn't great, but it's also OK to acknowledge that Williams hasn't been either and he needs to get rid of the ball quicker. In total, he has been sacked 10 times in the last two games, after only getting sacked seven times in the first five games.
Anyway, this is all a long-winded way of saying that after getting humbled last week, I think we see vintage Caleb Williams, who - it's worth noting - had success in two games against Utah a year ago.
Utah meanwhile, simply can't move the ball, as they navigate a season without Cam Rising. They currently rank 117th nationally in total offense and last in the Pac-12 in pass offense.
I actually think the UNDER is in play here, but come on, who bets the UNDER in USC games?
Instead, we're going to trust Williams to bounce back after two bad games, and lead the Trojans to a 34-14 victory.
Stay Aways:
No. 16 Duke at No. 4 Florida State (-13.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: One, shout out to the ACC, which has another compelling matchup this weekend in a game that doesn't feature Clemson. This really has evolved into a fun league, at least for this season. Still, Riley Leonard's status being up in the air is enough for me to stay away. If he plays, Duke covers. If he doesn't, well, I'm just not betting it.
Clemson (-3) at Miami: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ACC Network: The money this week has been coming in on Miami, and frankly, it's because I think just one year into the Mario Cristobal rebuild, he has comparable talent to Clemson. Especially since the Tigers are playing this game on the road. Still, Miami has turned the ball over nine times the last two games, continuing a trend from a season ago. If you want to bet a team that has turned the ball over nine times in two games, go for it. But it's a stay away to me.
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